Global Tri-Polar Chaos? Ukraine + Gaza + Iraq

London, UK - 23rd July 2014, 11:35 GMT

Are we living at a cyclical juncture where history is in danger of repeating itself, or is coincidence a more prosaic and likely explanation? It is almost exactly 100 years since the First World War started on 28th July 1914, ignited by a series of seemingly disparate and unconnected events.

Cartoon by Martin Rowson, 2014

The international community currently struggles to deal with three major chaotic events – any of which in themselves would be very serious – that all now require adroit, courageous and exemplary leadership and international diplomacy to defuse them.

The situations in:

1. Ukraine & Russia;
2. Gaza & Israel; and
3. Syria & Iraq;

have all become global crisis touch-points, with potentially far-reaching geo-political and economic repercussions as well as the potential to generate multiple black swans or low probability high impact events.

Are these just isolated events that have erupted coincidentally at the same time, or are they interlinked in any way and, if so, could they potentially have cascading effects with wider global consequences that few people can foresee or predict at this stage?

100 years on... is this history repeating itself, or is this nothing more than separate events with no discernible level of interconnectivity?


What are your thoughts, observations and views? We are keen to listen and to learn.

Narrative base: Socratic dialogue with John Read, Founding Director, Read-Dillon at Tri Gold Swan, Canary Wharf.

Best wishes

D K Matai

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