Sustained & Rising Oil Price

Does Global Data support Demand/Supply Imbalance?

London, UK - 11th June 2008, 21:58 GMT

Dear ATCA Colleagues

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

We are grateful to Prof Prabhu Guptara, Executive Director, Wolfsberg (UBS), Switzerland -- writing in his personal capacity -- for his additional query in regard to the ATCA Socratic Dialogue, "What is the Right Price for Oil?" and we also attach the authors' response in this regard titled, "Sustained & Rising Oil Price: Does the Global Data support Demand/Supply Imbalance as Main Reason?" He asks:

Dear DK and Colleagues

The ATCA briefing "What is the Right Price for Oil?" more or less starts by saying "The data presented so far overwhelmingly appears to support a fundamental supply/demand imbalance". However, we haven't seen relevant key figures anywhere. To my mind, the key questions are:

[CONTINUES] [ATCA Membership]

Yours faithfully

Prabhu Guptara

In response to Prof Guptara, we present, "Sustained & Rising Oil Price: Does the Global Data support Demand/Supply Imbalance as Main Reason? " from the authors of the ATCA briefing, "What is the Right Price for Oil?" They write:

Dear DK and Colleagues

There is no unified set of public authoritative data on crude oil reserves. The IEA's 2007 "Reference Outlook" projects world primary energy needs to grow by 55% between 2005 and 2030. In reality, this is little more than a simple extrapolation of the historic demand curve, which they say will be met largely by fossil fuels, predominantly from OPEC. They base their projections inter-alia on the assumption that "the crude import price falls back from recent highs of over USD 75 per barrel to around USD 60 (in year-2006 dollars) by 2015 and then recovers slowly, reaching USD 62 (or USD 108 in nominal terms) by 2030." The IEA argument is not informative, as it is not supported by a bottoms-up field-by-filed analysis on the supply side.

[CONTINUES] [ATCA Membership]

ATCA RAW, mIU, Hamid Hakimzadeh & Dr Harald Malmgren


The ATCA briefing was written jointly by the mi2g Intelligence Unit (mIU); the ATCA Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) based in Canary Wharf, London; Hamid Hakimzadeh, Hedge Fund Specialist and Global Asset Allocation Modeller, based in Buckinghamshire, England; and Dr Harald Malmgren, Chief Executive, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC.

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We welcome your thoughts, observations and views. Thank you.

Best wishes

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